表 表 表, 周 宵, 陈子儒, editor | 付晓玲
More than half months ago, Chen Sheng suddenly received a telephone number of the US Treetle Takeaway Platform Business Manager It is notified to adjust the distribution quilty.
It is understood that the new distribution method of the US Mission is from the original \”one knife cut\” by single-absorbing, refined to a comprehensive excsuck according to the delivery distance, order price, and delivery time. Almost in the same period, hungry is also exposed to similar commission reforms.
As a boss of Guangdong’s online coffee store, after the epidemic last year, Chen Sheng’s business is more and more dependent on the online platform. \”If 300 cups of coffee is sold every day, there are about 150 ~ 200 cups of coffee to send out from the US Treasury Takeaway Platform.\”
In fact, on the take-out platform, there are more and more food sellers selling on the side of the side. According to the US $ 2021Q1 financial report, the number of active merchants reached 7.1 million.
In the previous list of pads, takeaway merchants generally suffer from a commission rate higher than the average of the e-commerce industry (about 5%).
Also, \”The commission rate is so high, the takeaway platform must make money?\” It is the consistent idea of \u200b\u200bthe Pooper.
But is the fact now?
This article will start from the income and cost of the US Mission, and analyze the profit logic and capabilities of the takeaway platform.
The commission is full of hard money, and the growth space is limited
Although it is a consumer platform, the US group and Ali, Jingdong, and spelling the operation model of the platform have essentially different, the former It is a service e-commerce, the latter is an actual e-commerce.
For the seller of the actual e-commerce Taobao, spelling a lot of platforms, if the source is not short, the customer is of course a lot of benefits, the platform value does not have a ceiling in the seller’s eyes.
But on the take-away platform, each business (restaurant) has the upper limit of the daily reception capacity and takeaway, which means that there is a ceiling of the platform, and the number of users who continue to grow will not be greater for the merchant. Appeal.
Different product properties determine the difference between the two platform model income.
As shown in the following figure, Ali, spelling more than the source of income, mainly consisting of two parts: customer management income and commission income (transaction service fee), which accounts for the big head customer management fee, basically self-advertising marketing income.
The contrary to the US Mission, the main income of the takeaway business is commission, and 2021Q1 commission income accounts for 90%.
It can be seen that the physical e-commerce is not a commission to make money, so the impact of its commission rate on the actual income is limited. The performance growth space is mainly in customer management costs, which is advertising service revenue. .
The US group is actually increasing by commission, ifThe commission rate of \”Buddha\” is the same as the physical e-commerce, and more money is not burnt enough.
So, why did the US Mission not doing with Taobao, relying on \”selling advertising\” to make money? The answer is: I can’t sell it.
Advertising service is a return of the buyer of the merchant, especially the e-commerce industry, and the return on \”one penny one.\”
As far as physical e-commerce is concerned, with the increase in domestic e-commerce lines, many small and medium-sized businesses abandon the entity business model and fully transfer.
With sufficient supply, more sales have been sold, in order to get more traffic tilt in competition, the advertising promotion cost of the merchant is often not capped.
For example, when \”Double 11\”, Taobao’s advertising fees are often 10 times the usual. That is, the usual keyword bidding ranking fee is 500, the double 11 will rise to 5,000 yuan. However, in such a high price, the merchant also \”turned\”, there is a small and medium-sized business to burn 6 million advertising costs, used to drain.
However, more traffic is in such an attractive, the reason is that
1 The food industry is not large, and each store has limited radii. The maximum traffic range of merchants is only within a few kilometers nearby.
2 The merchant productivity is limited, and only a certain amount of orders can be affiliated one day.
3 Consumers choose a store takeaway, mainly to look at the word of mouth, flavor, not promotional information.
Merchant’s driving force is lacking, so although the advertising income of the US Trural Takeaway business has risen year by year, the scale is still subject to commissions.
However, the reality is that the advertisement is a collection of recreation, and the commission income cannot make money. Why do you say that? Then look.
The advertising income of the e-commerce platform depends on the sales cost of the merchant – when opening the store under the store, the merchant should advertise, do promotion, move the online, advertising spending is the same.
Currently, it is oriented by the large-acting e-commerce platform. Take it as an example to look at the growth space of platform advertising income.
As shown below, the average sales cost of the 2021Q1 apparel industry is about 20%; the sales cost rate of the beauty industry is generally around 40% (2020Q1-Q3).
Merchant continued and increased sales cost investment, representing high rise in the platform advertising income, and this effect is more highlighting in the flow dividend, and the product is more competitive.
Of course, not all product categories can contribute high advertising revenues. For example, the marketing cost of 3C electronic products is universally: Xiaomi marketing costs are around 5%; household appliances are around 10%.
However, these categories are often platform-outSku, rich consumer groups, is not taking growth, after all, compared to other categories, commission income is not high (in fact, Jingdong, which is the main 3C has been considered to be \”hard money\”).
The commission of e-commerce platform (take-away e-commerce and physical e-commerce) is actually equivalent to the rent of the merchant online, it is just necessary.
To some extent, the merchant chooses online or an increase in the online business, one for more users; one is saving or passing some of the rent costs.
The commission rate is relatively low without commission, and the commission rate is relatively low, and the discussion of the merchant is basically consistent. In order to maintain platform operations, the commission is the main type of commission rate, which is the proportion of rental accounts for the rental enterprises.
In general, the canary enterprises that can survive, the rental accounts are basically around 15%, such as the top level of the sea, probably 6 ~ 8 points; the macro fish is in 10 points; Nai Xue is a little bit a little, even some stores reach 20 points, but the overall basically is around 15 points.
The previous analysis, the catering industry is not \”buying economy\” business attribute, and thus the upper limit of the rent cost, natural is the upper limit of the commission rate of the takeaway platform.
As shown below, the monetary system (changing rate) of 2020Q1 US group is 14.4%. In this context, it is difficult to improve the change.
According to the report of the professional catering network: In 2019, the takeaway platform is rising, and many takeaway merchants exit the take-out platform due to the extrasale of high.
In addition, the customer’s order is less than 50 yuan, far less than Taobao, Jingdong guest purchase price. This also limits the US commission income.
Although the consumption attribute of the catering is relatively higher frequencies, it can make up for the problem of low customers, but this also makes the takeaway business to the business and platform for the sale of \”hard money\”. . And put the costs in, may not be taken to make money.
The cost of the rider has been \”high boost boat\”
The existence of e-commerce is to meet the needs of consumers \”how fast and good provinces\”, and physical e-commerce and service e-commerce bear consumers. Different aspects of demands.
With Ali’s \”more\”, Jingdong’s \”good\”, \”province\”, and physical e-commerce meet the freedom of consumer shopping line. For timely demand, the service e-commerce has been maximized.
Lunch break time, pick up the phone to press a few seconds, take a takeaway, then wear the headset to relax, free shuttle in the game, shake, hot search. Half an hour or so, with \”Thank you\”, takeaway to your hand. This is an efficient and convenient to serve e-commerce.
However, pursue the ultimate \”fast\”,Behind the huge rider team needs to support it.
Data show that with the expansion of the business scale, the size of the rider taken in the US group is also continuously expanded and extends.
From this, the platform has to bear the cost of high rider. As shown below, the US Treasury Takeaway Rider costs about 10% of the total transaction volume.
In fact, most of the commission income is spent here, and there is not much income of the platform. According to its annual report, the 2020 catering sales commission income is 58.6 billion yuan, and the rider cost is 48.6 billion yuan (accounting for 83%).
And and based on the labor-intensive attribute of the take-out industry, this cost is difficult to decrease, and even over time, it may be higher and higher.
As far as my country’s population structure, 16-59-year-old labor population accounts for a decline in the total population. This means that labor prices will be more and more expensive, and the labor costs of labor costs will also be \”high boat\”.
Under this trend, the time is not a friend of the take-out industry – once the labor price increased by the rapid price exceeds the platform’s monetary rate (changing rate) growth speed, the scale effect of the platform will be diluted.
In contrast, in addition to self-built logistics, the physical e-commerce not only does not have this part of the cost of labor costs, even Ali’s share of stocks, build a rookie station, and earn a pen. There is no similar trouble.
At present, \”second child, three-child policy\” releases, released positive signals on demarculiar supply, but this is far from talking about the degree of improvement in labor population structure.
In this paper, operational efficiency is improved. Takeaway platform is like a US group, is hungry, it is currently through an algorithm system, an optimized distribution line, and increase delivery efficiency. In addition, in the hardware part, unmanned distribution is also the focus of the take-out industry, and the related platform has some long-term investment.
According to US Mission 2021Q1 conference: development work involves unmanned distribution vehicles and other related support facilities, this technology is very important, and can further optimize distribution efficiency.
This makes the US group’s R \u0026 D cost rate and has always been a relatively high level. As shown below, the R \u0026 D costs of the e-commerce platform, Ali, the highest, followed by the US group.
And no disadvantages are a long process, not only the decrease in labor costs in the short term, but also requires sustained R \u0026 D costs to overlay high cost expenditure.
Remarks: Hungry is not related to research and development cost disclosure.
The income of the income is made of hard money, and the growth space is limited, the cost of humanity and research and development cost is difficult to improve in the short term, so that the beauty group has a thin profit space.
So, its profitWhat level is in the e-commerce industry?
We found on the contrast of operating profits and major business transactions, 2020 Ali’s operating profit / GMV is 2.4%, and the data of the US group is 0.57%.
That is to say, Ali can earn two four operating profits every 100 yuan, and the US group can only earn 5 hair 7, only 1/5 of Ali. The other businesses only look at the takeaway, the single profit taken for takeaway this quarter is 3 Mao 8. (According to the research information, it is completely distributed by the US Group. It has not yet lost balance. \”Wang Xing once said: Takeaway will be 100 million in the future, each one-piece goal .
However, this \”goal\” will not be achieved quickly with the limited level of profit level, and the commission rate growth space.
For a long time, the takeaway platform has been controversial due to a higher commission rate, and the market consistently thought that this is a \”big profit map\” track. But in fact, this is a business that is \”hard-effective\” compared to physical e-commerce.
On the one hand, with high-frequency consumption, a single single moving brick, a limited growth of performance; on the other hand, labor cost, expense spending continues to rise, fine calculation can squeeze out of thin profit.
This bitter business model is destined to take a take-out business, it is unlikely to become a cash cow, the opposite is that its business value is through high-frequency transaction, producing a large number of \”cloak traffic\”, and achieves \”woolen in the pig body\” Internet platform economy.