\”Pork prices have fallen by nearly half, and people who have recently bought ribs are obvious.\” Beijing Guangqu Road dishes, a merchant told the first financial reporter.
Pork as the most important meat food in Chinese residents, and its price fluctuations have thousands of households. After the expansion of the African swine fever in 2018, the pig production and pork market have been influenced. In the live pig breeding industry that earned \”Basin full\” in half a year, it has entered the \”loss cycle\”.
In order to alleviate the periodic fluctuations of pork prices, avoid the \”high-priced people’s valence,\” , The Market Supervision Bureau and other departments, jointly issued the \”Improve the Government Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism to Do a Good Job Market Guarantee for Storage Stave\” (hereinafter referred to as \”Plan\”).
\”Pig Cycle\” When the bottom
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.3% year-on-year, of which pork prices fell 23.8 %, The decline in expanded 2.4 percentage points from the previous month, becoming the main factors that dragged down the CPI rose.
Zhejiang, the British Securities Research Institute, Zheng Hao, the first financial analysis, the current amount of pig stocks and the number of porcine storage columns have been fixed to the end of 2014, and the pig storage is brought by the bib of the pigs. New high, indicating that pork average wholesale price will be in a weak state, and it is expected that pork CPI is greater than May.
The continuous decline in pork prices has affected pig enterprises. Recently, the Pigs in the A-share head has released the sales briefing of live pigs in May. Overall, the quantity of the leading pigs continued to maintain high growth, driving the income year-on-year, subject to a sharp decline in pig price, the monthly income fell is obvious in May; there are also some pig enterprises, and a single month income , A phenomenon that is fell year-on-year.
Institutional analysis, from a medium long term, \”pig cycle\” has entered the profit and even losses. The so-called porcine cycle is an economic phenomenon. Its circulation trajectory is generally: high meat price – the amount of pig storage is increased – the supply of pigs – the fell of the meat – a large number of eliminated sows – the supply of pigs is reduced by the supply of pigs.
From many institutions to report, most of them believe that \”pig cycle\” is difficult to see in the short term. China Post Securities pointed out that according to the data of the agricultural rural department, the national live pig product capacity has been restored to more than 90% of the normal level of the year. The recovery of live pigs will bring the loss of live pigs. Although the future price may have seasonal rebound, the price of live pigs is generally declining, and the pig industry will reach the bottom in 2022 or 2023.
Improve government pork reserve adjustment mechanism
In the face of the fall of pig prices, the government pork reserve regulatory mechanism once again be hoped.
In 2009, after the stateApproved by the hospital, the National Development and Reform Commission has released \”Prevention of the excessive fell regulation plan (provisional)\” to prevent the price of live pigs (provisional), and give full play to the government pork reserve regulation and revisions according to the situation in 2012 and 2015. \”Relieve the Place Price Periodic Periodic Wave Regulation Plan\”. The relevant plans have to promote the smooth operation of the pig market, relieve the price periodic fluctuations, and ensure that the pork consumption of residents has played a positive role, but also has accumulated experience in agricultural prices.
In order to better adapt to the new situation of the new situation in the live pig market and the new expectations of the beautiful life to meet the people, the National Development and Reform Commission is seriously studied by the relevant departments, and the empirical practice mechanism of this round government pork reserve regulation is mechanized, system The development of this \”plan\” is issued.
The relevant person in charge of the Development and Reform Commission said that the \”plan\” gives full play to the important role of government pork reserve as a key grip, adhere to the price of pigs and pork and \”low\” and focus on supply and safeguard The price is stable, and the price is stable. When the price is too high, the reserve will be put to protect the consumption needs of residents. If the price will fall to the reasonable range, avoid excessive expansion of the pig production; the price is too low, will start the storage store to take the market, and eat \”Dingxin Pill\” for the farming field Avoiding raw pig products to eliminate.
The first financial reporter learned that compared with the 2015 plan, this \”plan\” has been modified on the core content of early warning indicators and intervals, reserve classification and scale, and reserve adjustment mechanism.
\”Pig Food Comparison\” indicator is an important indicator of the relationship between the revenue of pig breeding costs, and is widely used by pig breeding industry. The \”plan\” continues to take this indicator.
At the same time, the \”plan\” increased two indicators: First, the rate change rate of \”can have a porcum storage\”, which can significantly improve the prospective warning and reserve adjustment work; \”36 large-scale urban creature average retail price\” indicators, this indicator is closer to consumer feel, which can make a warning and response in time when pork is over-rising.
The \”Plan\” distinguishes between excessive falling and excessive increase in pigs, and established a three-level warning range. Among them, according to the changes in farming cost income in recent years, the price of pigs corresponding to the pig breeding profit and loss is raised from 5.5: 1 ~ 5.8: 1 to 7: 1, when the price of pigs is 7: 1 ~ 9: 1 no warning, there is sufficient space for the market spontaneous adjustment.
In addition, the \”plan\” is located in accordance with different functional positioning of government pork reserves, and is divided into conventional reserves and temporary reserves. National level regular reserves are mainly used to meet market regulation and emergency delivery needs. Temporary reserves are combined with this round of regulatory practice, actively draw on other relevant important commodity reserves, mainly in the excessive decline in the price of pigs, production capacity has dropped sharply, to stabilize production expectations, realize effective \”tour\” steady capacity . At the same time, the size of the reserve is moreThe significant increase, the regulation capacity is significantly enhanced.
The income of listed pigs
The falling half of the pigs, the falling speed and decline of pig prices made the market. At the beginning of January this year, the price of the pigs was about 32 yuan / kg, and the head profit was close to 3,000 yuan. After March, the price of live pigs did not look up and continued to fall.
The price of live pigs fell below 16 yuan / kg, meaning the cost of breeding in the whole industry. Statistics show that the profit of the pig’s self-supporting mode has shrunk to about 170 yuan / head, and more than 90% of the highest point in the year. Full purchase of pig hyperigering model to enter the loss stage.
The cost management capacity is the core competitiveness of scale pig enterprises to resist the price fluctuations in pig cycle. From the perspective of the sales briefings of pig sales in May, the differentiation continued to intensify.
After June 8, Zhengbang Technology (002157.SZ) released a briefing of live pigs in May, the company sells 1648,400 live pigs (including 25.67 million piglets, 139.17 million goods pigs), 39.17 %, An increase of 232.23% year-on-year; achieving sales revenue of 365 billion yuan, the year increased by 20.26%, 99.92%, respectively.
The sales situation of Tianbang Shares (002124.sz) is also optimistic. In May, the company sells 2.27,300 pigs, sales revenue of 484 million yuan, an increase of 12.07%, 4.89%, respectively.
Self-cultivated dragon head animal shares (002714.sz) sales of 309.7 million pigs in May (including 3.38 million piglets), sales revenue is 6.78 billion yuan, down 14.44% from the previous month. The decline in revenue is mainly affected by two factors. On the one hand, the sales price of merchandise pigs decreased by 16.39%, and on the other hand, it fell about 50,000 in May.
On the other side, the new hope (000876.sz) has a quantity of sales. The announcement shows that the new hopes of sales of 69.33 million pigs in May, down 17.26%, an increase of 40.60% year-on-year; sales revenue was 1.656 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.56% from the year, a year-on-year reduction of 12.75%.
The new hope said that the main reason for the rise in pig sales year-on-year is to continue to promote the pig strategy, maintain a piggy pig in piglets than the previous year. The main reason for the sales price of commodity pigs has declined, the pig price is down.
\”The price of pig prices is the change in the objective industry environment, but if the pigs in the pigs, the sales of pigs in the monthly pigs have declined significantly, ‘Is the amount of replenishment’ is difficult to achieve, and the days after the future may be more It’s sad. From the situation of national piglets, the overall presence of the increasing ban, the income is increased, and the short season of the superimposed seasonal consumption has led to the recent pig price. \”A agricultural industry analyst said to the first financial reporter. –
cycle tide receded, the companies listed on the pig is how to look at
pork price decline more than the pig sector is also bearish on the market. Data show that since the second quarter, the cumulative days of state shares fell nearly 40%, led by sector. New Hope, proud agricultural biological (603363.SH) fell more than 20%; another eight stocks fell over 10%.
\”This year’s performance division pig prices may be more extreme. From the secondary market adjustment pig sector point of view, the cycle highs has become the market consensus, pork price fell due to the expected earnings decline reflects the basic in the current valuation pig prices, the second quarter results is certainly significantly less than the first quarter. \”the analyst said.
As of June 8 closing day state shares reported 7.14 yuan, closed up 1.28%. Last month, day state shares more than the decline, fell to the lowest level since July 2020. New Hope more dismal share price performance, the stock compared with September 2020 hit a record high 42.2 yuan, it has tumbled more than 60 percent, the highest two-year low. As a benchmark pig sector, animal husbandry, the original shares fallen more than 18 percent since May, significantly underperformed the broader market.
In fact, if a longer time dimension from the point of view, 2022 ~ 2023 is the current round of pig cycle of the lowest prices. Before the real advent of winter, the market has been sluggish for several months A shares pig sector is adjusted upward inflection point near the end is approaching, or is it to continue to \”stumble endlessly\”?
\”pig cycle at the downstream process, the seasonal variation in memory. In the short term, pork price downside is limited. We expect June to August pork price will rebound, the plague situation caused by the non-winter piglets decline in the number of shortage will increase the supply of live pigs from June to August. despite the magnitude and sustainability of the rebound relatively limited, but still would support plate movements forming stage, out of the rally. \”the analyst said.
In his view, cost control is the key point of competition in the next stage of business. \”This round of pig cycle is initiated by the African swine fever, vaccination costs, increase certainty slaughter pig prices become a key point of competition costs. Cyclical trough is yet to come, steady cost control related to the pig enterprises whether they have real ironing cycle capacity fluctuations. Furthermore, the actual slaughter means ‘premium content’ of certainty, whether the amount could be lower than expected also need long-term tracking. \”
\”From the pig cycle perspective, A shares pig sector has yet to enter the left side of the plate of investment opportunities, pork price shock of long-term downward trend has not changed. Industry structure will be further differentiation.\” He Express.