The way to make money

The last trading day before the Mid-Autumn Festival, A shares once again harvested trillion lesory, eventually chasing the longest record of history.

On Friday, the three major indices collected red, Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities all-day turnover reached 1343.2 billion yuan, this is since July 21 this year, the 43nd trading day has exceeded trillion .

It is worth mentioning that the turnover of 43 trading days since this year exceeded trillion yuan, and it has been together with the history record of the 2015 Bull City, which will be continuous from May 8 to July 8th, 2015. Draw 43 trading days breakthrough trillion level.

The turnover is a long time to do trillion is the prelude of the bull market? What is the difference between this time and the 2015 Bull Market? Industry analysts believe that the number of listed companies is more than 4467, which increases thousands of in the same period in 2015, and the circulation market value is also greater, and the northern part of the funds, quantitative transactions, etc., more contributed more transactions, and the subsequent A-share list continues The turnover exceeded 2 trillion before it would be vigilant.

Trill River Leading the history, the rhythm of the bull market?

On September 17, the three major indices of A shares were collecting red. The two cities totally 134.28 billion yuan, and the interval change rate was 3.28%. The turnover has been taken in a consecutive 43rd trading day. 1 trillion Yuan, chasing the longest record of history.

Data show that from May 8, 2015 to July 8, 2015, the two cities were active, and 43 trading days were take over trillions. During the period, the Shanghai Composite Index once in the disc of June 12, 2015, stood 5178 high, which was the highest bit since 2007.

Since this year, the stock market has a deep interpretation. The acquisition of ordinary investors has not been obvious, but the consecutive turnover of the A-shares is close to the 2015 Bull City, will it be the rhythm before the bull market?

Yinhe Securities Strategy Analyst Zeng Wanting said that the reporter has continued to exceed 10 million, and there is no necessity with the bull market, and the situation in 2015 is not comparable.

Zeng Wanda believes that the volume of this stage is now, mainly the following reasons:

First, the number of stocks has changed, and there are 4467 in the A-share market. The corresponding circulation market value is also greater, and less than 3,000 in 2015.

Second, Kobang, the rise and decline in the GEM is relaxed to 20%, which can also contribute part of the trading volume.

Third, the contribution of quantitative transactions, there is no accurate data to measure the proportion of quantitative transactions, but the currently recognized quantitative transaction of the market is about 20%, which is more than the previous promote.

In addition, Muskanghong, the person in charge of the Zhongyuan Securities Institute, believes that in 2015, there is a relatively large relationship with lever funds in 2015, especially external funding, which has played an important promotion. in contrastFor 2021, 43 trading days have been more healthy and sustainable.

Yang Boguang, chief economist, Dongguan Securities, general market definition, stock market \”Niu\” is needed to cooperate with the corresponding large amount of funding to drive the market, and finally referred to the situation. At present, the market is \”quantity\” cooperation, this only shows that the current is currently brewing \”bull market\”, confirming that \”bull market\” is more necessary to combine multi-factors such as raw material prices, prices, and central bank subsequent monetary policy.

Yang Boguang said that since it comes to the bull market, it is worthnecting that \”bull market\” is not only the index rose, more contains resident wealth allocation, and the stock market market value accounts for the overall national economic proportion, dividends More different meanings such as the actual economic contribution of re-investment.

\”Nowadays, the market is large, when the market is in the game, the volume will be significantly put, and the index changes are not changed. The recent market sector is rapidly rotated, and the sector funds have contributed a large transaction volume. In addition, the contribution of quantitative funds is increased; finally, the retail investment funds such as the property market will enter the market. \”Li Xing, the chief market analyst of Yuekai Securities Research, said in the market.

Li Xing said that from the perspective of the contribution of the transaction, the number of days in August increased by 8.4% in July, while the non-two-rated stocks in the same period increased by 18.3%, indicating the recent market. The transaction activity is mainly from non-two-rated stocks, namely the transaction of the retail. Under the overall tone of \”living room does not speculate\”, the policy is difficult to relax, and the real estate investment opportunities are reduced, and the stock market attraction is relatively high.

The reporter also noted that the report of Zhongjin said that the change rate of more than 5% of the single day may reflect the emotional overheating and there is a risk of callback. If the subsequent market turnover has further risen to 2 trillion Yuan (or continued above 1.8 trillion yuan) may be relatively vigilant.

What is the difference between the 2015 cattle market?

On the duration of the transaction, this A share has been chasing history. On the other hand, in terms of the characteristics or specific expression of the transaction, it has a lot of differences in 2015.

Li Xing believes that this round of 43 trading days have exceeded trillion to 2015, and a typical difference is that the transaction of north to funds is large. With the further opening up of the financial industry, the ratio of the North to the fund transaction is more increased, and this accounting data is 10.89%, 10.29%, while April and May 2015 is only 0.52%. 0.48%.

The Chinese reporter of brokerage discovery, in addition to the difference in the ratio of the north to the fund transaction, this round of trillion turnover is also different from 2015 in the turnover rate, hot industry, and sector.

Trill River in 2021, the marketThe rate fluctuates between 3% and 4%, and fluctuates between 4% and 8% in 2015.

Yinhe Securities Strategy Analyst Zeng Wantong said that according to historical law, the transaction volume will generally appear in the middle and late bull market. It is not too high for more than 10,000 yuan. \”If the volume has continued to more than 2 trillion. From the perspective of change, the current change rate is 3%, the peak of 2015 reaches 5% to 6%.\” [123

The Golden Report believes that the history of history is a good reference indicator, and the corresponding A-share has exceeded 1 trillion yuan. With the expansion of the market free circulation, the relative history of higher transactions may last for a long time. In addition to the value added in the stock market itself, in recent years, IPO and refinancing have also driven the number of listed companies and the expansion of equity, and the A-share free distribution market value has increased year by year and has exceeded 400 trillion yuan.

Historical A-share free circulation market value has a mean return characteristic, with the theoretical turnover calculated by 2.57% of historical change rate mean has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, so recent trading day The transaction breaks through trillion yuan may be a normal phenomenon, and it is not similar to the 2015 emotional excitement period.

Trills in 2021, the departments in the departure market were higher than the Shanghai and Shenzhen, and during the 2015, the Shanghai transaction volume was higher than in the city. In addition, the 43 consecutive turnover this year’s more than 10,000 days of daily transactions have not exceeded the level of 2015.

From the perspective of industry trading, the industry has a large transaction, including non-silver finance, mechanical equipment, chemical, computer, etc. Industry with large intervals in 2021 is chemical, electronics, electrical equipment, colored, and the like.

Daily earned 300 million, brokerage to become the most direct winner

A total of 43 trading days have exceeded trillion yuan, the most direct winner non-voucher. If the average net commission rate is estimated according to the industry average net commission rate, the brokerage industry has reached 300 million yuan.

In the first half of this year, under the market environment, the overall business situation in the securities company industry is better, and the income and profits have grown year-on-year. According to the statistics of the Securities Industry Association, 139 securities companies in the first half of this year were 324.14 \u0026 amp; NBSP; 100 million yuan, year-on-year growth \u0026 amp; NBSP; 8.91%, achieve net profit 90.279 billion yuan, an increase of 8.58% year-on-year, of which 125 securities companies gained profit.

The industry believes that under the promotion of the hot market, the stock market transaction volume maintains high, the scale of financing is also in high, and the securities company brokerage business still has strong growth motivation, especially head brokerage is expected to gain The steady growth of performance.

Although the transaction is directly allowed to make the brokerage business income, but the industry brokerage business commission rate has sustained pressure, the industry believes that it may be under the hot trading market.Further, the pace of promoting the transformation of brokerage wealth management.

Yang Bo light, chief economist, Dongguan Securities, if the turnover is calculated simply, and the average daily stock turnover in 2021 is 91.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.95%, average daily unit It was 980.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.17%, and the commission rate of the first half of 2021 was 0.25 in the same period of 2020, and the securities industry realized the net income of the agent sales securities business in the first half of 2021 was 58 billion yuan, which only increased by 10.95 year-on-year. %. Moreover, the increasing part also includes wealth transformation business income such as a large number of financial product sales.

\”The growth of the income growth of the brochure may not be large, more is that the performance of the wealth management products will be good under high-risk preferences of high-fluid market,\” Yang Bo Guang said, \” Follow-up As the industry competition has increased its commission rates, trillions of turnover can only maintain brokerage business revenue, and it may be that the brokerage business benefits may be an increase in the scale of wealth management business.

In fact, as the broker actively transforms to wealth management business, brokerage business gradually increases to financial product speech, capital intermediary business development, financial product speech and capital intermediary income.

In the first half of this year, the company’s total sales financial product revenue was achieved by 10050 million yuan, an increase of 117.28% year-on-year, and 85% of the spendling income of 85% last year was completed.

Li Xing, chief market analyst, said in Yuekai Securities Research Institute, said that the stock fund is hot, and brokers will be remarkable from the growth and transformation of wealth management tracks. Although bank and third parties The Internet is significant, but the market is very broad, and the investment business level, the brokerage has excellent investment capacity, self-employment and subsidiary investment, investment advisers, etc. It is expected to form a profit contribution.

Li Xing believes that the activity of market transactions has improved in the second half of the year, and the mid-term performance of securities companies is good, and the overall estimate is low, and brokerage stocks form the soil of estimated repairs, which is beneficial to the wealth management track market. Recognize and further transformation.

Yang Bo light analysis, future, trillion turnover in the A-share market or will become normalization, although the commission rate continues to decrease, but far super long-lasting average turnover will make up for gaps, and each broker broker brokerage Business revenue will be greatly improved, and in addition to the service of the agency, core customers, it will aggravate in general investor education activities. Synchronous benefits, there are high-fluidity, investment banking, and self-employment and credit business under liquidity preferences.