The sun and the moon have passed the wings. After two years of new crown epidemics, what will we usher in 2022?
\”Economist\” predicted in the next year in the \”2022 World Outlook\” just published:
\”If 2021 is a year in the world to reverse the epidemic trend, then 2022 mainly depends on adapting to new reality. Whether it is in areas that are reshaped by new crown epidemic, or deeper The trend reappears. \”
New reality may be gradually stable in the new crown epidemic, or may be a unresolved inflation and sustained energy crisis.
2021 of oscillating and differentiation
2021 is a year of global economic recovery, and it is also a year of accelerating the economies of economies and various industries.
Time clock to the year, the large disc site is still shocking at 3,500 points. From the initial Mao index, it is reached in Ning combination. From the cycle as the king to the carbon, then go to the Yuanyuan Universe, the low-estimated sector rebounded. In the past year, he came to the scene, and the style was frequently switched. The plates were rotated like a fan. The decline in home appliances, real estate and other industries have more than 20%, while new energy and interoperability industries have increased by 20%.
The capital market is oscillating differentiation, and the fund investment has also entered the HARD model. In the past, drinking medicine as a combination of the warehouse can not continue. Many star fund managers have been pulled down the altar, and the previous performance of the pre-performance is a sharp call.
Compared to the performance of the year last year, only more than 3% of the yield exceeded 3% this year. 83 billion private equity this year’s average yield of 5.65%; after the past two years of income, the median yield of the public-funded partning fund this year is 4.2%; the median yield of the A-share listed company is 1.7% .
As the economic model enters the green electricity cycle from the real estate cycle, the domestic migration of core assets has been welcomed. China’s core assets from real estate into high-tech enterprises. The real estate wealth effect continues to weaken, money and resources no longer flow into the previous super water storage, but the next wealth reservoir is still unknown.
Under the premise of lack, 2022 or will be more difficult
rising prices and economic recovery, has become a common barrier for global economic development. Some of the state of \”low growth rate and high inflation\” is similar to previous lagging, so economics experts define the dilemma of the current global economy as \”class labeling\” period.
The global economic growth is slowed in slowing, and the key reason is the flameout of the core driving force. Each round of economic cycles is driven by technology, and we are in the recession cycle of the third technology revolution, and information communication technology has fallen sharply on economic driving.
In the United States, the seventy-decal seventy period of the United States, except for individual goods, all kinds of assets show universal deviations. Interest rate lifting affects bond revenue, and the stock market valuation is compressed, only crude oil and gold have highlighted. In the past lack period, there is a stock index, foreign exchange, commodity rotation, and overall watching product performance is most prominent. Under the expected risk of lack, the bond market and stock market investment may be more difficult.
Balanced configuration, the opportunity to focus on green cycle and dilemma
From the external macro environment, the global economy in the first half of the world will face downward pressure. The total demand for investment and consumption is relatively general, and the value of plate configuration with strong inverse cycle attributes is high.
The brokers have released the prospects of the 2022 investment strategy, which mentioned the most is the high boost and dilemma, because these two types of sections are not easily impacted by the economic fall.
The high boost track is the hard-working technology of photovoltaic, wind power, and new energy. In carbon-up, carbon neutralization, the global energy structure is in the transformation of clean energy and domestic policy intensive, and has supported the development of new energy industries. On November 8th, the central bank launched carbon emission reduction financial support tools. On November 17, the establishment of 200 billion yuan in this basis, supporting coal clean and efficient use of special reissue, forming policy scale, and promoting green low-carbon development. The central bank encourages more social funds to turn to the green and low-carbon fields. In the next 30 years, the carbon will bring nearly 500 trillion yuan of green low-carbon investment demand.
The dilemma reversal industry generally has experienced the full exposure of the previous risks, the stock security margin is high, and the risk benefits are relatively high. Difficulties are generally divided into two categories, one is the reversal caused by external policies, such as home appliances, furniture, construction machinery, etc. on the real estate industry chain, but this type of reversal is different from still requiring external factors. The degree of uncertainty.
The second category is not dependent on policies, and its own boom can promote the dilemma. For example, it benefits from automotive replenishment, and the automobile and parts entering the new energy vehicle industry chain, a new round of pigs Pork and must-have consumption under cycle.
All pre-registrations are not as possible with equalization. Regardless of how the market is interpreted, no matter which industry singing the protagonist, there is always a lot of fell, and the fell will always rise, the mean return is the king of the king, it is better to meet the changing market with a balanced configuration. It is necessary to pay attention to the low valuation, the value of high value, and the other hand, and the high-growth faucet with high boosts such as green electricity, semiconductors.
With domestic insurance, social careThe addition of gold, A shares of institutional investors share the shareholding of 50%, the concept of long-term investment and value investment in institutional investors will also boost A shares to walk out of the smashing fate. However, this also means that individual investors have further reduced in the stock market, and more needs to obtain growth bonus with the strength of our professional institution.
For high net worth customers, private equity is also an important path to sharing dividends in China’s economic development. Private equity has the advantage of inverse cycle, and can cross the economic cycle. In recent years, major reforms such as Bochuo Boards, Registration System, and Fund Fund Removal Rules have expanded the equity investment and exit channels, and the rhythm of high-tech enterprises has accelerated. Equity investment becomes an innovation engine, and investors can choose the opportunity to participate in quality equity investment.
The difficult opportunity is often hidden, and more and more foreign investment choices will be born in China’s assets, and China’s rights assets will still be high in the world. Continuously expand personal investment capabilities, with the strength of our professional institutions balanced, in danger, prepare for the upcoming 2022.